Can Brain Waves Predict Box Office Movie Success?

You’re sitting in a movie theater, popcorn in hand, as the lights dim. The first trailer plays, and you lean over to your friend, whispering, “That looks terrible.” The next one flashes across the screen, and you nod, “I’d watch that.” But does what you say out loud match what your brain is thinking?

A recent study suggests your brain may be a better predictor of movie success than you are. The study by Boksem et al. (2024) explored whether Electroencephalography (EEG), a tool that measures brain wave activity, can be a predictor of market-level success, particularly in advertising. Researchers used EEG to measure brain activity while people watched trailers, finding that gamma waves—linked to comprehension and cognitive engagement—were the strongest predictor of box office performance. This means the movies that activate certain brain signals, regardless of what viewers claim to like, are the ones more likely to succeed.

The Study: EEG and Box Office Predictions

The research analyzed EEG data from 188 participants watching 161 different movie trailers across five independent datasets. Several EEG metrics—including alpha, beta, theta, and gamma oscillations, as well as inter-subject correlations (ISC) and alpha-asymmetry—were tested to see if they could predict box office performance beyond traditional factors like movie budget, star power, and self-reported liking of trailers.

Key Findings: The Power of Gamma Waves

Among all the EEG metrics, only gamma oscillations showed a consistent and significant ability to predict box office revenue. Gamma activity, often associated with understanding and cognitive processing, proved to be a better predictor of movie success than self-reported trailer preferences. When gamma activity was included in the predictive model, accuracy increased significantly—suggesting that the cognitive engagement measured by gamma waves plays a crucial role in determining audience appeal.

Neuroforecasting and What This Means for Movie Marketing

The central neuromarketing principle explored in this study is neuroforecasting—the idea that brain activity in a small group can predict broader consumer behavior. This concept is based on the premise that certain neural responses, such as engagement and cognitive processing, serve as universal indicators of audience appeal, allowing marketers to forecast success before a product even launches.

This research represents a major advancement in consumer neuroscience, reinforcing the power of EEG-based insights in marketing. If a movie trailer sparks deep cognitive engagement, it is far more likely to translate into commercial success at the box office—regardless of what audiences say they like.

Because consumer decisions aren’t always conscious, the brain’s real-time reactions can often predict behavior better than self-reported preferences. This study confirms that gamma brain activity, linked to comprehension and engagement, is a strong predictor of success, providing marketers with a data-driven way to refine ads, trailers, and content strategies before they go live.

At its core, this study demonstrates how neuroscience can enhance marketing strategy, providing a scientific approach to forecasting success, optimizing content, and improving ad effectiveness across industries.

How Marketers Can Apply These Insights

1. Optimizing Trailers & Ads for Maximum Impact: Since gamma brain activity, linked to comprehension, was the strongest predictor of box office success, marketers can use EEG testing to fine-tune movie trailers, commercials, and digital ads.
Key Learning: The more clear, engaging, and easy to process the content, the better the response. Ads should focus on strong storytelling and comprehension to boost engagement.

2. Predictive Consumer Research Before Launch: Rather than relying solely on focus groups or surveys, brands can test neural engagement through EEG to predict how audiences will react to movies, ads, and product launches.
Key Learning: Neural data often provides a more accurate prediction of consumer behavior than self-reported preferences, offering better insights into what truly resonates.

3. Enhancing Engagement Through Storytelling & Visuals: The study found that trailers generating strong cognitive engagement (gamma activity) led to higher box office performance, reinforcing the importance of compelling storytelling, strong visuals, and clear messaging in marketing.
Key Learning: Grabbing attention isn’t enough—content must be easily processed and understood to drive action.

4. Applications Beyond Movies: Ad Testing & Content Strategy: While the study focused on movies, its insights apply broadly to brand marketing, viral content, and digital advertising. EEG testing can be used to fine-tune social media ads, video content, and product packaging based on real-time neural engagement data.
Key Learning: Neuroscience-driven insights can enhance marketing effectiveness across industries, from retail to tech, by identifying what truly captivates an audience.

Limitation to Note

While the study demonstrates that EEG-based neuromarketing can predict movie success, it has limitations. The sample size, though spanning five datasets, is relatively small compared to the global audience, and the study focuses only on trailers, not full movies. External factors like marketing efforts, social media buzz, and reviews also influence box office performance, making EEG just one piece of the puzzle. Additionally, while gamma activity indicates engagement, it doesn’t fully explain why a trailer resonates. Practical challenges, such as cost and accessibility, may also limit the widespread use of EEG testing in marketing. Future research could expand sample sizes, integrate other neuromarketing tools, and explore long-term consumer behavior.

The Bottom Line

Marketing success isn’t just about grabbing attention—it’s about ensuring content is easily understood and resonates deeply with consumers. EEG-based neuromarketing provides a data-driven way to optimize content before launch, increasing engagement and conversion potential.

So the next time you’re sitting in a theater watching trailers, making snap judgments about what looks good and what doesn’t, remember—your brain might already know which movie will be a hit before you do. What truly captures attention and drives success isn’t always what we say we like, but what our brains are engaged with, process easily, and truly connect with.